Masterful Iran

Perfect Bait and Switch

You have to hand it to Iran. The Al Jazeera headline says it all: "Iran Not to Cede Nuclear Rights". These guys are very focused and very clever. They know exactly what they want, where they are going, and how they are going to get there. They have the West and Russia flummoxed, out-thought, out-manoeuvred. Not that it is particularly difficult to do--they saw Obama coming a mile off, and Putin is very easily played.

European nations have had it with Iran. They have tried the diplomatic game long enough to know that the party sitting over the other side of the table is duplicitous and for whom "good faith" is merely a weakness of the other side to be exploited at will. So, when it was finally public that Iran had a carefully concealed uranium enrichment plant at Qom, and that it had lied to the UN and the West for years, France, Germany, and the UK threw their toys out of the cot and got mad.

But "no drama Obama" just saw it as one more courtroom manoeuvre in the drive to negotiate and settle out of the court. Enter the Iranians with the best "bait and switch" manoeuvre seen in a long time. They allowed themselves to be "forced back" to the negotiating table, under threat of yet more UN sanctions. They assured everyone they really did want to talk and prove to the world that they were only interested in peaceful nuclear technology. They responded positively to a Russian and American suggestion that they give their stocks of uranium to the specific nations (Russia, France, US) for processing into non-military fuel rods, which they could then use in their medical and energy sectors. This would ensure that their uranium was used for peaceful means only.

Everyone was pleased. It was clearly the way forward. It was a face-saving compromise. Iran would now be able to buy non-military enriched processed uranium so that it could put it to all those developmental and peaceful uses it said it really wanted to do all along. By handing over its uranium stockpile, at one fell swoop its nuclear weapons programme would be cut off at the knees. You could almost see the relieved grin on the faces of the White House. But the American tyro knew nothing of Iran's masterful game playing. The European powers glowered. They knew that Iran had merely laid the bait out.

Two days ago the celebrated diplomatic talks to sort all this out began in Geneva, with much fanfare. Everybody was feverishly working on the details of how this solution could be made to work operationally. Then the masterful Iranian switch. Yes, they were very keen to buy processed uranium off Russia (not France, it was a bad boy--"untrustworthy", was a term used) and in the open market in general. (The refusal to deal with France, itself, was a classic "divide and conquer" manoeuvre. These guys are good.) But as for sending all its uranium stockpile offshore, you had to be kidding. Iran would never relinquish its sovereignty in this way. But, it was very reasonable of you chaps to offer to let us buy processed uranium from you--all above board, sanctioned, and legal. And, we thank you for your acknowledgement that we have a right to nuclear technology--which your willingness to approve our buying enriched uranium clearly acknowledges. Thanks, guys.

The American contingent has been left with its mouth open. It has been masterfully outplayed by the Iranians. Your move, "No drama Obama." Guess it's back to the Saul Alinsky playbook.

Postscript: The latest is that the West and Russia is playing out the game. They have allegedly agreed with Iran how the uranium-go-round will work. Iran will now consider it.

The UN's atomic watchdog says Iran has agreed to consider a deal on its nuclear programme, which could see it ship out most of its enriched uranium to Russia.

A decision is expected by Friday. It's hard to anticipate those masterful Iranians, but our guess is that Teheran will gravely consider the proposal, and will "co-operate" and agree that a small proportion of their uranium stockpile will be sent overseas for processing. Al Jazeera's correspondent in Teheran is likely signposting something like this when he writes:

Nazanine Moshiri, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Tehran, the Iranian capital, said the final decision over the deal "will be made here in Tehran. And Tehran has said it will not give up its right to develop uranium."

The Iranians will probably release just enough uranium to have the West hold up a piece of paper and proclaim, "Peace in our time." If so, as with Chamberlain, we believe they will have been played for fools.