The Flawed Statistic That’s Helping Poison the Brett Kavanaugh Debate
By David French
National Review Online
Only a small fraction of rape claims are proved false, but far more are never pursued, because of insufficient evidence.
It happens every single time there’s a public debate about sex crimes. Advocates for women introduce, in addition to the actual evidence in the case, an additional bit of “data” that bolsters each and every claim of sexual assault. You see, “studies” show that women rarely file false rape claims. According to many activists, when a woman makes a claim of sexual assault, there is an empirically high probability that she’s telling the truth.
In other words, the very existence of the claim is evidence of the truth of the claim.
Here, for example, is Isaac Stanley-Becker writing in the Washington Post: “No crime is more underreported than rape, according to the National Sexual Violence Resource Center, which estimates that the rate of false reporting is somewhere between 2 and 10 percent.”
This same statistic is cited again and again. And it’s being cited to bolster Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations against Brett Kavanaugh. Here it is at the BBC, in Vogue, and at Raw Story. This Vox report goes even farther, repeating an incredible and unverifiable claim that “994 out of 1,000 perpetrators walk free.”
I could go on and on. Writing in Vox, Sandra Newman adds a new twist, not only arguing that false rape reports are “quite rare” but that people who make false claims tend to fit a particular profile. Ford’s claim, she says, “sounds nothing like a false rape accusation,” but it “does sound like millions of real attempted rapes.”
If you believe this data, it’s easy to see why people are so outraged when a skeptic says that an alleged victim hasn’t come forward with compelling evidence. After all, it’s a statistical fact. Women are almost always telling the truth. It’s science.
But there’s a problem. A serious problem.
Showing posts with label Guilt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guilt. Show all posts
Tuesday, 25 September 2018
Tuesday, 25 July 2017
Letter From Australia (About Victimhood, Grievance, and Entitlement)
"The Force is Strong in This One"
A politician in Australia has been caught out with her snout in the trough. But because it's all to do with a PC cause, there is "nothing to see here. Move along." Nonetheless, voters have taken umbrage.
Here's a way to test your capacity for self-delusion. If your child is too ill to go to school today, do you take her on a business trip at the taxpayer’s expense? A moral bind surely, even if it is within the so-called company rules. But if you’re a warrior for Single Motherhood, that excuses everything.If anyone dare criticize this snout-in-trough behaviour, the good senator will face them down with masterful guilt manipulation. How dare anyone persecute a single mother such as her!
You can attend, with a sick child in tow, an overnight jaunt to see a few whales and shuck oysters because you are simply doing your job. In other words, tick, another problem solved in the tyranny of life known as Single Motherhood. That is, of course, if you’re blindly entitled like the Greens’ Sarah Hanson-Young.
The Senator has this week been condemned nationwide for using a reported $3874.24 of taxpayers’ money to go whale watching with her daughter Kora last September in the Great Australian Bight. Hanson-Young says she didn’t have an option and therefore had to take her unwell 11-year-old along on the trip to discuss BP’s plans to drill for oil in the marine reserve. [Daily Telegraph]
Saturday, 5 December 2015
Addicted to Marx's Opium and White Guilt
Bowing and Scraping to Allah And His Prophets
Ben Shapiro has written an insightful piece explaining why the Establishment Left continues to carry water for the Islamic religion.
Ben Shapiro has written an insightful piece explaining why the Establishment Left continues to carry water for the Islamic religion.
Why Hillary and Obama Prefer Islam to Christianity
On Tuesday, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the American woman most responsible for the current refugee crisis in the Middle East, blasted Republicans for not wanting to accept unvetted Syrian Muslim refugees in the aftermath of last week’s Paris terror attacks.
She tweeted:
This, to be sure, is odd. Hillary decrying hateful rhetoric smacks of irony – she despises Republicans so much that she labelled them her enemies during the first Demoratic debate. Furthermore, Hillary is no fighter for religious freedom. In April, she told the Women in the World Summit that “deep-seated cultural codes, religious beliefs and structural biases have to be changed” to allow for abortion. And in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s egregious same-sex marriage decision in June, Hillary explicitly called for the government to force churches to sanction homosexuality, explaining, “Our work won’t be finished until every American can not only marry, but live, work, pray, learn and raise a family free from discrimination and prejudice.” Pray – as in attend church “free from discrimination and prejudice.”We’ve seen a lot of hateful rhetoric from the GOP. But the idea that we’d turn away refugees because of religion is a new low. -H— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) November 17, 2015
But she’s sure hot and bothered about what she terms discrimination against Muslim refugees. This isn’t particularly surprising – the entire left has a peculiar soft spot for Islam.
Wednesday, 7 January 2015
Evil is Not My Fault
Two Views of Evil
If you are impertinent enough to ask whence evil originates, the first hurdle to be leaped will be the general discomfort over the topic. Assuming the initial squeamishness can be overcome, we hazard a guess that within five seconds all options will likely point to some environmental factor or another. Vile people come from vile environments.
The sub-texts are: firstly, people are not responsible for evil acts any more than one is responsible for the weather; and, secondly, evil can be overcome or at least attenuated by changing the external living conditions and life circumstances of people. The discussion will likely progress upon the pathways of some additional assumptions as well. It will be assumed, though rarely asserted, that morality and ethics are a matter of class, socio-economic class. Decent people are, well, like us. We don't rape, murder, or steal because we are fortunate enough to live in decent environments--which in our materialist world refers inevitably to one's lifestyle, wealth, and income. As G. K. Chesterton put it, there is an "old contemptible impertinence which represents virtue to be something upper-class, like a visiting card, or a silk hat."
A further unspoken assumption is determinism--by which we mean that whilst most of us like to tell ourselves we are free men, when it comes to evil we suddenly become iron-clad determinists. People are evil because life circumstances determine them, or condition them, to be so. Evil is environmental; it's nobody's fault. You catch it like the common cold.
Well, not so fast.
If you are impertinent enough to ask whence evil originates, the first hurdle to be leaped will be the general discomfort over the topic. Assuming the initial squeamishness can be overcome, we hazard a guess that within five seconds all options will likely point to some environmental factor or another. Vile people come from vile environments.
The sub-texts are: firstly, people are not responsible for evil acts any more than one is responsible for the weather; and, secondly, evil can be overcome or at least attenuated by changing the external living conditions and life circumstances of people. The discussion will likely progress upon the pathways of some additional assumptions as well. It will be assumed, though rarely asserted, that morality and ethics are a matter of class, socio-economic class. Decent people are, well, like us. We don't rape, murder, or steal because we are fortunate enough to live in decent environments--which in our materialist world refers inevitably to one's lifestyle, wealth, and income. As G. K. Chesterton put it, there is an "old contemptible impertinence which represents virtue to be something upper-class, like a visiting card, or a silk hat."
A further unspoken assumption is determinism--by which we mean that whilst most of us like to tell ourselves we are free men, when it comes to evil we suddenly become iron-clad determinists. People are evil because life circumstances determine them, or condition them, to be so. Evil is environmental; it's nobody's fault. You catch it like the common cold.
Well, not so fast.
Monday, 29 December 2014
Duplicity So Unbecoming
A City of Two Tales
One of the qualities we demand (rightly) from our political leaders is integrity. Thus it is a sad indictment that for many Western nations the only attribute that enables politicians to lust for and successfully grasp at political power is mendacity.
The following account by Michelle Malkin of Michelle Obama's egregious attempt at guilt shaming tells us all we need know about the integrity of that particular person.
One of the qualities we demand (rightly) from our political leaders is integrity. Thus it is a sad indictment that for many Western nations the only attribute that enables politicians to lust for and successfully grasp at political power is mendacity.
The following account by Michelle Malkin of Michelle Obama's egregious attempt at guilt shaming tells us all we need know about the integrity of that particular person.
Michelle Obama’s Tales of Racialized Victimhood
She changes her story about her adventure at a big-box store.
Friday, 14 November 2014
The Politics of Guilt and Pity
The Double Standards of Neo-Marxism
The predominant ideological narrative amongst Western elites and its attendant Commentariat is neo-Marxism. According to this perspective, the world is divided up into "the haves" and the "have nots" whom "the haves" exploit. The policies of most Western governments and political discourse in general reflect this ideology in one way or another. It is an ideology of faux-guilt and faux-pity.
A corollary of Western neo-Marxism is that non-whites are an exploited minority in most Western countries. As such, being largely dispossessed of wealth and perpetually poor(er), they deserve more than just sympathy. The enlightened neo-Marxist must stand with them in solidarity. The upshot is rampant hypocrisy and double standards. Let a white middle-class person rob or rape and the full weight of the law will justly fall. Let a black or Hispanic person do the same, and all kinds of double standards and extenuations are likely to apply. The latter has done wrong, to be sure, but they are oppressed and exploited, so deserve a measure of understanding and sympathy not appropriate for a member of the "exploiter class".
Domestic violence in New Zealand we are told is predominantly a Maori problem. Maori elites and the chattering classes blame exploitation of Maori by society at large (but essentially white Europeans) for this mess.
The predominant ideological narrative amongst Western elites and its attendant Commentariat is neo-Marxism. According to this perspective, the world is divided up into "the haves" and the "have nots" whom "the haves" exploit. The policies of most Western governments and political discourse in general reflect this ideology in one way or another. It is an ideology of faux-guilt and faux-pity.
A corollary of Western neo-Marxism is that non-whites are an exploited minority in most Western countries. As such, being largely dispossessed of wealth and perpetually poor(er), they deserve more than just sympathy. The enlightened neo-Marxist must stand with them in solidarity. The upshot is rampant hypocrisy and double standards. Let a white middle-class person rob or rape and the full weight of the law will justly fall. Let a black or Hispanic person do the same, and all kinds of double standards and extenuations are likely to apply. The latter has done wrong, to be sure, but they are oppressed and exploited, so deserve a measure of understanding and sympathy not appropriate for a member of the "exploiter class".
Domestic violence in New Zealand we are told is predominantly a Maori problem. Maori elites and the chattering classes blame exploitation of Maori by society at large (but essentially white Europeans) for this mess.
Saturday, 12 July 2014
Liberty is a Fragile Treasure
The Politics of Guilt and Pity Trump Justice
People charged with a crime have to be proved guilty beyond reasonable doubt to be convicted. This is not a tangential, but a fundamental, component of our system of justice. The burden of proof is on the accuser, and his agents--the police and inquisitorial agencies of the State.
Judicature is structured this way--and has been for centuries--because the power, resources, and influence of the State are so much greater than a citizen's. There are other principles set in concrete to afford similar safeguards and protections. The accused cannot be compelled to testify against himself. Again the reason is the mismatch of power between the State and the accused. The State has the power to "lean" on an accused, with threats, intimidation, even torture. "Confessions" under even the hint of duress are thrown out immediately--which is why interviews are extensively videoed and audio-taped. They provide evidence of no duress by the State.
It is disconcerting, however, when the politics of guilt and pity intrude. These fundamental principles of justice set down to maintain the integrity of judicature can be tossed overboard in an emotive tsunami. The NZ Labour Party, polling in the twenties percent range, desperate to strike some resonance amongst the few identity-orientated groups which still maintain lingering vestiges of support, has come forth proposing to dismantle "proof beyond reasonable doubt". This from the NZ Herald:
People charged with a crime have to be proved guilty beyond reasonable doubt to be convicted. This is not a tangential, but a fundamental, component of our system of justice. The burden of proof is on the accuser, and his agents--the police and inquisitorial agencies of the State.
Judicature is structured this way--and has been for centuries--because the power, resources, and influence of the State are so much greater than a citizen's. There are other principles set in concrete to afford similar safeguards and protections. The accused cannot be compelled to testify against himself. Again the reason is the mismatch of power between the State and the accused. The State has the power to "lean" on an accused, with threats, intimidation, even torture. "Confessions" under even the hint of duress are thrown out immediately--which is why interviews are extensively videoed and audio-taped. They provide evidence of no duress by the State.
It is disconcerting, however, when the politics of guilt and pity intrude. These fundamental principles of justice set down to maintain the integrity of judicature can be tossed overboard in an emotive tsunami. The NZ Labour Party, polling in the twenties percent range, desperate to strike some resonance amongst the few identity-orientated groups which still maintain lingering vestiges of support, has come forth proposing to dismantle "proof beyond reasonable doubt". This from the NZ Herald:
Thursday, 20 March 2014
The ContraCelsum S-Files
Removing Guilt
We are not big on national pride, believing it to be the cause of much evil in the world. National pride is nothing other than personal pride writ large. And the proverb tells us that the Lord hates and abominates haughty eyes (Proverbs 6:16-17).
But sometimes things are done in this small country which make us thankful, wanting to acknowledge special achievements. This time, the accolades go to Environmental Science and Research ("ESR") and, in particular, scientist Catherine McGovern and her team. Now we are aware that ESR operates at times under severe budget constraints, and that its dedicated staff are called out all hours to crime scenes--usually the most horrific--to investigate and gather evidence.
It turns out that McGovern and the ESR has helped secure a conviction in a very cold case in Australia. The NZ Herald has the account:
We are not big on national pride, believing it to be the cause of much evil in the world. National pride is nothing other than personal pride writ large. And the proverb tells us that the Lord hates and abominates haughty eyes (Proverbs 6:16-17).
But sometimes things are done in this small country which make us thankful, wanting to acknowledge special achievements. This time, the accolades go to Environmental Science and Research ("ESR") and, in particular, scientist Catherine McGovern and her team. Now we are aware that ESR operates at times under severe budget constraints, and that its dedicated staff are called out all hours to crime scenes--usually the most horrific--to investigate and gather evidence.
It turns out that McGovern and the ESR has helped secure a conviction in a very cold case in Australia. The NZ Herald has the account:
Tuesday, 12 November 2013
Heads Must Roll
Pam Corkery's Calls For a Committee of Public Safety
Pamela Corkery, opinionated provocateur, has chosen an unfortunate turn of phrase writing about a hot public controversy presently incandescing the pages of our newspapers. Some under-age girls have been allegedly date-raped by young men. The police have not yet charged anyone. Pamela has called for "heads to roll", apparently oblivious of the historical reference to the horrendous Reign of Terror.
Maybe Pamela forgot the connection. Or maybe she does not care. Or maybe she is ignorant. Or maybe like a true people's demagogue she finds nothing offensive, unjust, or distasteful in seeing innocent heads roll from the guillotine blades into the tumbrels?
Whatever the case, it does seem that Pamela has chosen to overlook the minor matter of evidence, witnesses, and proof beyond reasonable doubt in matters criminal and judicial.
Pamela Corkery, opinionated provocateur, has chosen an unfortunate turn of phrase writing about a hot public controversy presently incandescing the pages of our newspapers. Some under-age girls have been allegedly date-raped by young men. The police have not yet charged anyone. Pamela has called for "heads to roll", apparently oblivious of the historical reference to the horrendous Reign of Terror.
Maybe Pamela forgot the connection. Or maybe she does not care. Or maybe she is ignorant. Or maybe like a true people's demagogue she finds nothing offensive, unjust, or distasteful in seeing innocent heads roll from the guillotine blades into the tumbrels?
Whatever the case, it does seem that Pamela has chosen to overlook the minor matter of evidence, witnesses, and proof beyond reasonable doubt in matters criminal and judicial.
Monday, 13 May 2013
Man As Animal
Unleashing Sin
One of the abiding lusts of Western pride is the lure of a perfect society brought into being through human ingenuity, planning, and enlightened application. No matter what problem we face, throw enough resources at it, study it to death, put a management plan in place, and hey presto, the problem will be solved.
Such approaches may work well when we are dealing with problems arising out of the non-human natural order. They fail miserably when we are dealing with human beings. Why? Precisely because man is not a cipher. He is not the impersonal product of impersonal natural forces. He is altogether more wonderful and complex: he is a moral agent made in the image of God. When sin entered the human race through Adam and spread to all mankind "descending from him by ordinary generation" the wondrous complexity and moral agency of mankind became perverted. The sophisticated complexity of humanity became a spectacular resource for cunning, duplicity, and evil.
But modern man has "advanced" to the point where he sees himself as a sophisticated animal, nothing more.
One of the abiding lusts of Western pride is the lure of a perfect society brought into being through human ingenuity, planning, and enlightened application. No matter what problem we face, throw enough resources at it, study it to death, put a management plan in place, and hey presto, the problem will be solved.
Such approaches may work well when we are dealing with problems arising out of the non-human natural order. They fail miserably when we are dealing with human beings. Why? Precisely because man is not a cipher. He is not the impersonal product of impersonal natural forces. He is altogether more wonderful and complex: he is a moral agent made in the image of God. When sin entered the human race through Adam and spread to all mankind "descending from him by ordinary generation" the wondrous complexity and moral agency of mankind became perverted. The sophisticated complexity of humanity became a spectacular resource for cunning, duplicity, and evil.
But modern man has "advanced" to the point where he sees himself as a sophisticated animal, nothing more.
Friday, 3 May 2013
Letter From America (About the Skull)
The Collapsing of the American Skull
The parameters in which we allow ourselves to think about vital issues shrink remorselessly.
The parameters in which we allow ourselves to think about vital issues shrink remorselessly.
Thursday, 7 February 2013
The Buck Stops . . . With Me
Taking Responsibility
Shifting blame on to others is intrinsic to our fallen human condition. Right from the beginning, immediately after the Fall, Adam, our father blamed his wife and God ("The woman you gave to me, she gave me the fruit . . ."); Eve, our mother blamed the Serpent ("The serpent deceived me and I ate"). Just about everything that is wrong with human society can be traced back to these fateful events, attitudes, and words.
It is not very often we read or hear of someone who takes full responsibility for his actions and what devolved from them. It is so rare, it's refreshing. But more than that, it opens up the possibility of moving on.
Dion Batt has brain damage resulting from a motorcycle crash which occurred as a result of him fleeing from police pursuit.
Shifting blame on to others is intrinsic to our fallen human condition. Right from the beginning, immediately after the Fall, Adam, our father blamed his wife and God ("The woman you gave to me, she gave me the fruit . . ."); Eve, our mother blamed the Serpent ("The serpent deceived me and I ate"). Just about everything that is wrong with human society can be traced back to these fateful events, attitudes, and words.
It is not very often we read or hear of someone who takes full responsibility for his actions and what devolved from them. It is so rare, it's refreshing. But more than that, it opens up the possibility of moving on.
Dion Batt has brain damage resulting from a motorcycle crash which occurred as a result of him fleeing from police pursuit.
Tuesday, 8 January 2013
A Tale of Two Trials
To Compensate or Not to Compensate, That's the Question
Emeritus Professor C K Stead has written an excellent piece reviewing the judicial reviews of the Bain murder case. Stead stands firmly behind the argument that on the balance of probabilities, David Bain was guilty and, therefore, no compensation is required.
His reasoning and argumentation is well worth the read--even for those who by now have become tired of the whole affair. (Our concern in the compensation debate has been tangential, but not unimportant. We believe that the distinction between the higher standard of proof--beyond reasonable doubt--required in criminal trails, versus the standard of "balance of probabilities" that usually applies in a civil case is a very, very critical distinction to maintain. If that distinction were to be lost the power and facility of the state to imprison on less than adequate grounds would be greatly enhanced--which would be a dangerous deformation. We therefore believe that the debate is of public importance. C K Stead's piece is a worthy contribution to an important matter.)
Emeritus Professor C K Stead has written an excellent piece reviewing the judicial reviews of the Bain murder case. Stead stands firmly behind the argument that on the balance of probabilities, David Bain was guilty and, therefore, no compensation is required.
His reasoning and argumentation is well worth the read--even for those who by now have become tired of the whole affair. (Our concern in the compensation debate has been tangential, but not unimportant. We believe that the distinction between the higher standard of proof--beyond reasonable doubt--required in criminal trails, versus the standard of "balance of probabilities" that usually applies in a civil case is a very, very critical distinction to maintain. If that distinction were to be lost the power and facility of the state to imprison on less than adequate grounds would be greatly enhanced--which would be a dangerous deformation. We therefore believe that the debate is of public importance. C K Stead's piece is a worthy contribution to an important matter.)
Saturday, 22 December 2012
Standards of Proof
Compensating David Bain
Children are frequently entertained by "find the mistake" type puzzles. We have found a howler of the genre for you to puzzle over. It occurs in the ruminations of one Sir Bob Jones--an opinion writer in the NZ Herald. We quote the article below. See if you can find the childish mistake. (We should note in Sir Bob's defence that he has been known to sit in his office of an evening conversing with many a glass of high quality shiraz, so maybe he wrote this piece whilst under the influence.)
Firstly, Sir Bob informs us, his dear readers, that he is a man of astute and careful judgment when it comes to New Zealand politics and politicians.
Children are frequently entertained by "find the mistake" type puzzles. We have found a howler of the genre for you to puzzle over. It occurs in the ruminations of one Sir Bob Jones--an opinion writer in the NZ Herald. We quote the article below. See if you can find the childish mistake. (We should note in Sir Bob's defence that he has been known to sit in his office of an evening conversing with many a glass of high quality shiraz, so maybe he wrote this piece whilst under the influence.)
Firstly, Sir Bob informs us, his dear readers, that he is a man of astute and careful judgment when it comes to New Zealand politics and politicians.
Age and experience have a moderating effect and teach one never to rush to judgment on issues without the full facts. It's certainly the case with me, which may surprise readers. But analysis of my columns will show that while I may use colourful or comic comment if a strong view is expressed, it's invariably supported by the facts.So, Sir Bob is in firm possession of the "full facts". From his peculiarly endowed perspective he unleashes a harsh and extreme criticism as follows:
My life-long interest in politics dates back to the 1949 election and the shock as a small boy of seeing tears in my father's eyes following the defeat of the Labour government. I recall every subsequent election and have known nearly all of our prime ministers, commented in hundreds of articles and books on our politics and participated in the process.
Friday, 17 August 2012
Victimhoodery Run Down
A Peculiar Man
The politics of guilt and condescension parades victims everywhere. "Victims here, victims there and not a tear to drop", wrote Coleridge. Or he would have if he were living in our age of Victimhoodery.
Unfortunately every now and then someone comes along who refuses to be a victim, to blame someone or something else for his plight. When it happens it is like seeing a light in a dark place. How strange, we muse. How untypical. How unlike the spirit of the age. What school did he go to?
Take the case of bus collision victim, Tim Brown. Poor old Tim walked into a bus in Wellington on Willis Street in Wellington, snapping his foot, ribs, lung, arm and shoulder. Lawsuits beckon. Victimhoodery about to explode forth like a Mt Tongariro eruption.
Ah, no.
The politics of guilt and condescension parades victims everywhere. "Victims here, victims there and not a tear to drop", wrote Coleridge. Or he would have if he were living in our age of Victimhoodery.
Unfortunately every now and then someone comes along who refuses to be a victim, to blame someone or something else for his plight. When it happens it is like seeing a light in a dark place. How strange, we muse. How untypical. How unlike the spirit of the age. What school did he go to?
Take the case of bus collision victim, Tim Brown. Poor old Tim walked into a bus in Wellington on Willis Street in Wellington, snapping his foot, ribs, lung, arm and shoulder. Lawsuits beckon. Victimhoodery about to explode forth like a Mt Tongariro eruption.
Ah, no.
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