Our Future Beckons

Greece--the Bigger Picture

In the lead up to World War II, British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain proceeded to negotiate with Hitler because he believed him to be a man who would keep his word.  In a now infamous sentence he said he had looked into Hitler's eyes and saw integrity in his soul.  When Hitler subsequently broke solemn agreements, Chamberlain's offence was such that he resolved to war against Hitler with might and main.  When it dawns on you that the person across the table is lying, there is no point in continuing further negotiations.

And so it has come to this point in the small matter of Greece remaining in the European Union.  Clearly some of the European nations (Germany and Finland amongst them) believe that Greece as a nation, and its Prime Minister as its representative, are complicit in telling and living systemic lies.  Therefore, negotiations are not worth anything, and, like Chamberlain, all further attempts should be suspended immediately.

But the charade must needs go on.  The pretensions demands of a United Europe built to the glory of Man demand it.  The Greek Prime Minister returns to Athens to drum up support for all the concessions he must make in order to get an 80bn euro loan, just to keep Greece Inc. going and to keep Greeks in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed.  One can imagine what is taking place behind the closed doors.  "Look, chaps, it doesn't matter what we agree or sign up to.  It's just words, scribbles on a paper.  We have fudged our way through before.  We can do it again.  Easily.  It's the Greek way."

Whether the bailout goes through is not yet a done deal.  But close.

Letter From the UK (About Europe)

German Hegemony, Consternation, and Grass Roots Scepticism

European Union was never going to work.  The Grand Idea was that respective European nations could be gradually moved towards giving up sovereignty bit by bit.  Gradualism was the plan.  The initial execution was brilliant.  It started with low level wins.  First the euro itself.  A common currency had immediate benefits for commerce across borders.  Business loved it.  Consumers likewise.  Then the dismantling of borders with respect to customs duties and migration and travel.  No more long queues up at the border between France and Spain.  Citizens of Europe could freely travel across the Fourth Reich.  Then there was the boon of a common labour market.  Poles could freely come into the UK to get work.  Gone were the long struggles to get work permits.

These easy wins made the EU project very popular.  But wait, there was more.

Letter From America (About Killing Europe)

The Euro Is Killing Europe

From Cyprus to Portugal, the common currency has been a disaster.

BY DANIEL ALTMAN | MARCH 25, 2013

FPForeign Policy 

Are the best days of the European Union already behind it? Just a few months ago, having won the Nobel Prize for Peace, it could boast of decades without a major war, the westward turn of the former Soviet satellites, and flourishing internal trade. But now its one big mistake -- the euro -- threatens to tear the union apart.

In 1999, the traditionally hard currencies of Europe's north merged with the softer currencies of the south to form a new money that was somehow supposed to be stronger than any of the ones it replaced. Under the stewardship of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, the euro was meant to -- and did -- become a reserve currency to rival the dollar. Though the supposedly prudent northern countries didn't always keep their budget deficits under control, they still managed to survive the worst of the global economic downturn. By contrast, the profligacy of the south, together with its flawed banking systems, has created a hotbed of crises that stretch 2,300 miles from Lisbon to Nicosia.

Nation State Democracies are the Enemy

Nigel Farrar Confronts the Creeping Despotism of Europe

Euro Break Up Being Priced Already

Watching the Smart Money

One of the issues being discussed at this blog is the survival of the Euro.  It is obvious that financial markets get really jittery when the break-up of the Euro portends.  Equally obvious is the relief rallies in markets when the risk-du-jour fades and the survival of the Euro is assured for another week or so.

What is often missed is that the smart money has already decided the Euro is going to break up.  When we refer to "smart money" we don't mean the billions upon billions traded daily in global stock markets and bond markets.   We mean instead the banks, investors, and companies putting real money (their own capital) at risk in actual trading of goods and services in Europe.  These participants are dealing with reality as best they are able to discern it, not speculation, rumours, or apocalyptic visions.

A recent article in The Blaze by Becket Adams looks at what the "smart money" is doing in Europe.

Waiting for the Inevitable

Another Grandiose Utopian Project To Follow the Dodo

Ho hum.  Another day.  Another crisis meeting in Europe.  We predict after this weekend's meeting communiques will be issued and declarations made to the effect that "important steps" have been taken.  The crisis can now abate.  It will last twenty-four hours, then the crisis will return, with a vengeance.

Euro-politicians are living in denial.  They cannot bring themselves to face the inevitable and brutal truth.  The euro project is finished.  It is over.  It has to be broken apart.  You can do this in a relatively orderly fashion, once the pollies bow to reality, or it can break apart by itself.  Either way it is going.  Jeff Randall, writing in the Financial Times and the Sydney Morning Herald explains why the euro has to fail:

Unwelcome Attention

When the Idols Break

The Commentariat is paying more attention to Greece at present than that country has experienced in many years.  The focus, of course, is upon Election II, since Election I failed to produce a government.

Our view is that Greece needs to get out of the Euro so that it can have the depression it really needs to have.  At the moment it is being sustained on life-support by Euro loans, but the death is long, slow, and painful.  Better to get it over quickly: Greece could then at least have an opportunity to begin to rebuild its dysfunctional economy.

The problem, however, is that Greeks have drunk socialist cool-aid for far too long.

Europe in Denial

Not a Pretty Sight

 Leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage explains why he believes the Euro is finished.

The Fourth Reich

Germany's Euro Feint?

We are agnostic on what the outcome will be from the present European financial crisis.  But watching it unfold is exceedingly diverting.  In broad relief, the options are: either Greece leaves (or is ejected from) the Euro leading to a general break-up of the currency union, or Greece stays and the union is preserved.

If the former, the break-up will cause financial turmoil and banking failures until the respective countries hit bottom and begin to trade their way out of depression.  If the latter, European nations lose national sovereignty to a much more powerful Federal Europe, dominated by Germany. 

The intriguing question is, Who is going to blink first?  German Chancellor Merkel, or the Eurocrats?  And, beneath it all, is the German republic playing a game of poker where it finally sees an opportunity for the end-game it has long sought: a centralised European government, controlled by Germany?  As the incoming Obama administration said, never let a good crisis go to waste.

A Knife in the Dark

Europe Faces the Cutting Blade

Recent and forthcoming events in Europe represent a watershed one way or the other.  At the moment, things are on a knife-edge.  Will Greece stay (in the Euro) or go?  What will be the outcome of either scenario?

One the one side are the eurocrats, the endless ranks of  European bureaucrats and functionaries who not only sit in seried rows in Brussels, but who have been insinuated into every European nation, government, bureaucracy.  They are the political elite of Europe.  The privileged class whose entire existence depends upon the continuation of the grand experiment that is European monetary union.  To them the continuation of the Euro-zone represents all their hopes and dreams.  They are certain that should the Euro unravel, life as humanity now knows it will end.  Their watchtower warnings are heard on every hand.