One of the most sober quotations from Winston Churchill during World War II ran something like this:
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."There has been a lot of excitement about the recent trade agreement between the US and China. It is a welcome advance. But there are miles to go. It is vital that the West keeps the pressure on the most ill-governed country in the world.
On China, Pinholes and Pinpricks
By The Editors
National Review Online
There are two major problems with the new Washington–Beijing trade accord announced by the Trump administration: First, it isn’t much of a trade deal; second, the principal problem in the U.S.–China relationship is not trade.
There are some benefits to the deal. These are important and should not be overlooked. For one thing, signing even a partial and preliminary deal (which is what “phase one” means) may relieve some of the uncertainty that currently imposes heavy costs on businesses in the United States and abroad. A higher degree of certainty will encourage investment and long-term economic growth.
And while it has imposed heavy costs on U.S. businesses ranging from soybean farms to steel mills, the trade war has credibly demonstrated to Xi Jinping and his cronies that the United States has the ability to inflict real economic pain on China, and that the subsequent disruption will be borne with far more strength and flexibility by the U.S. economy — which enjoys the dynamism associated with genuinely free enterprise rather than the nationalistic neo-mercantilism practiced by Beijing. The trade war has put the Chinese back on their heels if not quite down on their knees. In that, President Trump has accomplished precisely what he intended.
