The Coming Dark Ages?

Can Russia Remain a Great Power?

Is its demographic predicament too large to overcome?

Marcus Roberts
Mercatornet


In the Second World War the people of the Soviet Union suffered enormously. By official counts (estimates) the number of Soviets who died was about 27 million people – an eighth of the pre-war population. Such a catastrophe continues to have effects through the decades. Fewer people after the war had fewer children, as these children grew up, they had fewer children and so on. Demographers call it a “wave” of population troughs and crests that undulate through the subsequent generations; its effects are still being felt in the successor states to the Soviet Union.

After Russia’s population stabilised at about 144 million people for about ten years (and was then boosted by the addition of over 2 million Crimeans – remember that?), it is once again shrinking as more Russians die than are born. Last year there was a decline in the number of Russian births by 11 percent. This decline in the number of births is set to continue: by 2032 the number of women in prime childbearing age is expected to decline by 28 percent from today’s figures, meaning that there will be fewer babies being born in the years ahead. Unless something drastic happens, the United Nations is expecting the Russian population to decline by 17 percent to 119 million by 2050.   

This state of demographic affairs is of concern to the newly re-elected Russian president, Vladimir Putin. As Bloomberg reports, Putin said that:

“‘Preserving the nation of Russia and the wellbeing of our citizens is the essence of everything,’ he said in his state of the nation address last month as a chart detailing the statistical “war echoes” loomed on a screen overhead. ‘Falling behind is the main threat. That’s our enemy.’”

In this speech to Parliament, Putin laid out a number of demographic and economic goals for his fourth term. These included propelling Russia into the top five economies. But he is battling some immense demographic headwinds.

Withering on the Vine

The Demographic Time Bomb is Most Marked in Japan

The demographic time bomb – whereby the elderly population assumes a greater and greater proportion of the total population - is no more marked than in Japan.

Falling birth rates (as a result of abortion, contraception and delaying childbirth) and increasing longevity as a result of better medical care have created this situation.

If we look at the population age structure in Japan (see graph above) we can see how dramatically its shape has changed since 1950 and how much more it will change by 2050.

The same trends are spelt out numerically in the table below where different countries are compared.

Unless something is done to reverse the demographic trends, ‘economic necessity’, together with the ‘culture of death’ ideology which is becoming more openly accepted, may well mean that the generation that killed its children through abortion will in turn be killed by its own children through euthanasia.

The population pyramid of 1950 shows that Japan had a standard-shaped pyramid marked by a broad base. The shape of the pyramid, however, has changed dramatically as both the birth rate and death rate have declined.

In 1950 the population of elderly citizens (65 years and over) accounted for just 4.9% of the total population. This had risen to 21.5% by 2007 and will rise to 39.6% by 2050.