Afghanistan--A Ray of Hope

They Can't Help Themselves--Thankfully

At this blog we have been very bearish on the prospect of making any progress in the war in Afghanistan. We continue to hold the view that the US and its "allies" should not be there.

Those who argue for increased troop build-ups and greater military commitments in Afghanistan cite the apparent success of the "surge" in Iraq. We have not been persuaded. What is being forgotten is that the warring factions of Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq decided to call it quits and enter the political process. The reason was that Al Qaeda had made itself odious in the eyes of both groups because of its ruthlessness in killing Iraqi's, not Americans. The Iraqi factions decided eventually that Al Qaeda was the real enemy (at least for the moment) and so began to co-operate with the Americans against terrorists. This is the real reason a relative, albeit fragile, peace has been established in Iraq.

It bears remembering that while Islamic fundamentalists hate the infidel West, they hate moderate Islamic regimes more. The latter are apostates, not infidels, and the sentence in the Koran for apostasy is death. Thus, Western leaning Islamic nations or groups are Al Qaeda's real and worst enemy--and always have been. So Al Qaeda was trying to throw out, not just the infidels from Iraq, but also exterminate apostate Islamic Iraqi's--that is, the western orientated government. Their war upon Iraqis in the attempt to bring a fundamentalist revolution to that country proved their undoing.

Now, it seems the same might be happening in Pakistan--which has seen a flurry of suicide attacks in recent days--all from the Taliban and (by implication, Al Qaeda). For the US, this must be an opportunistically encouraging development. One of the biggest problems faced in Afghanistan is the tacit support given to the Taliban by Pakistan. It has been revealed that the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar has been sheltered and protected in Pakistan for years. He runs his government there with the full knowledge of the Pakistani government (which has to this time believed that the Taliban is not its enemy, but India.)

But now that might be changing. The upsurge in attacks in recent days looks like the start of a deliberate, systematic, and planned campaign against the apparatus of the Pakistan state, not just sporadic violence for the purposes of terrorising civilians. Once again, the fundamentalists will be thinking that the secular Islamic government in Pakistan is a more hated enemy than the US. If they think that there is even the smallest chance they can topple the Pakistani government and take control, Allah would command (and bless) a full-scale campaign. If so, it is likely that the Taliban and Al Qaeda will rapidly wear out their welcome in Pakistan and they will face a war on two fronts.

This may change the strategic situation in Afghanistan a great deal. Stay tuned.