Saturday 26 April 2008

Hell Hath No Fury Like an Electorate Scorned

Politicians and Their Diabolical Pacts

There seems no doubt the present government is going to lose the forthcoming election. The only question of interest that remains is whether the loss is going to decimate the Labour Party, consigning it to electoral oblivion for the next twelve to fifteen years, or whether the loss will be “respectable”, enabling the Party to recreate itself within a much shorter time.

On that question the jury is out—although the portents are not good. The current leadership of the party is unprincipled, gratuitous liars, venal, messianic, and above all, power hungry. Roger Douglasses and Richard Prebbles they are not. Such people are never likely to let go of power easily. Those that replace them within the Party are likely to be a bit vengeful. It seems probable that the Party is in for a good old fashioned round of blood letting. Watch for “The Gangs of New York” to be played out in live theatre.

Political commentators and the more serious journalists are still arguing that the election will turn around policies and that the party with the most electorally attractive will win. Nah. We recall the adage that oppositions do not win elections, governments lose them. The current Labour-led Government has lost the election already. We believe they all know it. They are just going through the motions. There is plenty of evidence that Labour players are already beginning to angle for advantage in the brave new world that will emerge after the election. They are clearly contemplating a post-Clark universe. They should, however, be careful. The dragon still has claws.

There is an irony in this situation. Most modern political leaders who win the favour of the Athenian electorates do so because they are prepared to enter a Faustian bargain with the people. Give me power, and I will sell my soul to you. This is the key to electoral traction. Either by direct blandishments or by implication, to be successful, a political party has to sell its soul to the people. If you give me power, I will bow down and serve you. How does the electorate want to be served? All successful political leaders have been able to convince people that they will indeed take care of them and provide for them. In exchange the people grant the wish of the political leaders. They love politicians who are prepared to sell their souls. Policies are irrelevant. Details are boring. I will support you if you you take care of me—cradle to the grave. I will give you power; you will take care of me, bow down to me, and serve me.

The more ambitious and driven the politician, the more deliberately and cynically they will traffick in this Faustian pact. But, of course, this is a two edged sword—as all Faustian pacts are. While governments can do an awful lot of damage they can achieve very little positive good. The law of contrary outcomes means that even policies and initiatives with genuine intent to accomplish some social good usually fail and end up producing far greater social evils. After a couple of terms in office, most governments cynically give up on genuinely trying to achieve anything salutary. All of their actions become directed to maintaining the pretense of delivering on the pact—that indeed they are taking care of people, and the consequences be damned.

But in the end it dawns on the credulous population that a government has broken its end of the bargain. At that point—which is a key electoral inflection point—the mood of the electorate turns nasty. The devil that lies just beneath the surface of the electorate stirs. It is not just that policies have failed, but that the government has broken the pact. This generates very real feelings of anger and a desire for revenge.

The present Labour-led Government has promulgated the Faustian pact far and wide. It has had behind it a fair economic breeze—which has been none of its own making, but for which it has claimed a great deal of credit. Now, contrary winds are blowing. Food and petrol prices are rising to the point where people are complaining. Things are not so good. The future looks more bleak. When you see interviews at petrol pumps where ordinary people are overtly saying they blame the government for rising petrol prices, you know that the Devil is coming to get his due. The Government has broken the pact. Electoral death and banishment to the oblivion of the underworld awaits.

We believe this is why political administrations rarely last beyond two electoral terms and almost never beyond three. All that is required is for the electorate to become convinced that the latest Faustian incumbent is not going to keep the bargain. And no government ever can. Civil government is neither a Messiah nor a Redeemer. The citizens of Athens, on the other hand, are constantly looking for and demanding both. They expect governments to care providentially for them (that is, provide for them), fix all problems, remove all inequities, defend against all threats, and provide the necessaries (and even luxuries) of life. Universal health, education, and welfare—these are the basics. Beyond that is income, prosperity, well being, happiness, and luxuries. Ultimately, the state is responsible to provide them all. Moreover, the state must competently defend against any and all forces—whether internal or external—that would threaten these life entitlements. This is what the modern devilish electorate requires and demands.

They used to say, Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned. But the fury of a woman scorned is inconsequential when compared to the hellish fury of an electorate when a government fails to deliver and so scorns its Faustian bargain with the people.

So, in November we will have a new government in New Zealand. Will it last? No—not beyond a couple of terms, three at the most. Will it therefore be a failure? Yes. It will fail to deliver on its promises to the people of Athens who require that their governments function as gods. And waiting in the wings will be new, fresh, aspiring political leaders who long for power and who are willing to sell their souls to the Devil. But, be warned. It is to the Devil that you are selling your souls. Hades awaits.

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