Brexit Woes

Hard Times?  Maybe Not

Brexit is a shambles.  At least, it appears that way.  Here are the brutal realities.  British PM, Theresa May has put forward a scheme of arrangement to the Eurocrats running the EU.  It is soundly condemned by members of her own party, who believe it supinely bows to the demands of the Eurocrats.  Boris Johnson, for example, has stridently condemned the May Plan known as "Chequers".

Former Foreign Secretary and two-time London Mayor Boris Johnson made a thinly disguised bid for leadership of the nation Tuesday afternoon at a fringe event at the annual Conservative party conference, calling for Conservatives to embrace popular policies, cut taxes, and deliver Brexit.  The would-be Conservative leader saved discussion of the foremost matter in British politics — Brexit — until the end of his speech, telling the cheering audience at the conference fringe event that May’s plan was a “cheat”, and that “this is the moment to chuck Chequers.” [Breitbart London]

There is not too much doubt about the intent when Boris delivered the punchline of "chuck Chequers". 

At the same time, the Eurocrats have been equally mocking and dismissive of May's efforts.  In fact, they were downright rude--and their rhetoric is getting worse.  A reasonable expectation, therefore, is that May's plan will fall to shreds upon the cutting floor.

Why are the Eurocrats so intractable, one may ask?  It is clear they want to discipline and punish the UK for even thinking about leaving.  We suspect that in the inner smoke-filled rooms, where unmentionables are discussed, the Eurocrats see the beginning of the end of the EU itself were Britain to succeed in leaving.

What remains, then, is the looming hard date of Brexit (29th March, 2019).  May is in an invidious position.
  She cannot win over the conservative wing of her party which supports Brexit and is pushing for it (as required by the public referendum in Britain).  Neither can she win over the Eurocrats who, for their own reasons, want to see the very idea of Brexit smashed to smithereens.

May needs at least one of those entities in order to make some progress.  But neither of those want to step up to the floor and dance with the PM.  Doing nothing will result in a default to a hard Brexit, which is already set in concrete.  The UK has bound itself into leaving--either by mutual agreement or not.

Will a hard Brexit mean the end of the world?  No.  Life goes on.  Commerce goes on.  The UK is a sound, substantial economy.  There are a list of countries lined up to do business with Britain, just as soon as it can be unshackled from the EU.  Certainly there will be necessary adjustments.  But our expectation is that pragmatic adjustments will be the winner on the day.

Whether Theresa May can survive as PM, however, is another matter.