A Couple of Predictions from Insiders

Tightening Beltway

For those of our readers who are Kiwis and who have more than a passing interest in politics in New Zealand, here are a couple of observations on the new government from folk that have, or do, operate within the Beltway.  

Firstly, from Audrey Young's column in the NZ Herald:

National will be unlike any opposition before - as the largest party in the Parliament by 10 seats, it will not be demoralised.  Its objective will be to make Ardern's honeymoon as Prime Minister as brief as possible and to discredit the new Government as early as possible.

Their numbers will be a powerful aid. In Question Time, for example, where oral questions are allocated in proportion to the number of non-executive members of the party, National will get to ask roughly eight out 12 questions every day, Labour three and the other parties will share the other question.  The National Opposition will sniff out any vulnerability and tension in the new Government and they will have the power to exploit it.

Of course, the earliest soft target presented by the government will be the weaknesses that arise from being a cobbled coalition of electoral losers.   Question Time will be a perfect opportunity to exploit the divisions between the motley government.

Secondly, from Richard Prebble:

One of the challenges ministers face is persuading the civil service to implement policy. (Yes Minister is not a TV comedy it's a documentary).  I predict bureaucratic opposition to this government will be significant. It will start leaking from day one. Everyone knows this coalition of losers has no mandate to implement Winston Peters' interventionist policies.

There is no mandate for change. When one adds up the votes there was a majority for a continuation of the policies that have brought us low inflation, record low interest rates, full employment - and the best growth in the OECD.  Sixty per cent of us tell pollsters that the country is heading in the right direction and only 30 per cent say it is not.  The government simply has no support for Peters' policies.  [NZ Herald]

Some of the most disaffected will be senior officials within the bureaucracy.  They will be faced with changing policies which were working and showing signs of making a significant difference for good.  They will have been derailed by a jeremiad screeching, Last Days doomster--the Honorable Winston Peters.  If Prebble is right, we expect there will be plenty of ammunition handed to the National caucus to use in Question Time, and in other media.

For our part, we do indeed hope that our present Coalition of Losers Government  will end up living amidst Interesting Times.  If nothing else, it's going to be entertaining.