Wednesday 28 September 2016

A Rare Sight

New Zealand Warns the United States

We were amused to read of the NZ Prime Minister's interaction with the elitist US Council of Foreign Relations in New York.  To get the opportunity to confront the reigning US-centric mindset of his audience was too good to waste.

Journalist Tracey Watkins, writing in Stuff, provided a (rough) blow-by-blow.  First up was a chap who wanted to put John Key in his place.
John Key's audience at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York was a small but well-heeled one. So a shocked gasp went around the room when one of its armchair generals rose from his seat to ask whether New Zealand was good for much more in the US than a few lamb chops.  His gripe was New Zealand's anti-nuclear legislation and not pulling our weight which, as Key pointed out, is ancient history, given our decade-plus involvement in Afghanistan and now Iraq.
Now, one supposes that Key's interlocutor was wading waist deep in the miasmic slough of "USA!, USA! USA!" cheerleader chants.  If he were better informed, however, he may have pursued the Prime Minister on this point.
 He could have asked him how much money NZ was spending per year on education in this country, or on the public health system, or state welfare payments, and how this compared to our annual spending on defence.  He then could have asked Key whether, since NZ had systematically reduced its commitment to its own armed services, why it felt it could free load on the heavy lifting being done by other nations when it came to providing for NZ's defence.

But our Prime Minister on this occasion was spared by the ignorance or indolence of his interlocutor. Besides, Key wanted to talk about other things.
That was not the only history lesson Key felt compelled to deliver to his US audience.  He harked back to the days of "fortress New Zealand", the time pre-1980s when we ran one of the more protectionist economies in the world, our manufacturers and even wine makers propped up by tariffs and quotas that freed them from having to compete with companies overseas who did things faster, cheaper and better.

It wasn't a huge leap to see the parallels between that and where Key saw the likes of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and former Democratic contender Bernie Sanders leading the United States with their anti-free trade, anti-China rhetoric.
The US is feeling more global pressure these days.  Putting up protectionist barriers looks like a sure fire strategy of a nation not at peace with itself.
 Key's warning to the US is that shutting its doors to the world could have the opposite effect to what Trump promises with his clarion call to make America great again.  As the rest of the world retreats into protectionism, Key is almost a lone voice advocating for free trade and, in particular, the Trans Pacific Partnership deal, on the international stage.

Even Democratic contender Hillary Clinton is talking about renegotiating the TPP - a move that could effectively kill the deal, as it would put everything else up for renegotiation among the 12 member countries.
Nature, they say, abhors a vacuum.  And so it tends to be in the matter of international relations.
Key counts New Zealand as among those who would expect new terms if any renegotiation by the US weakens our own position.  Key didn't pull any punches, meanwhile, in warning what would happen if the US pulled out.  Something else would fill the void. And in this case, the something would probably be China,  the very bogey used by Trump to scare up opposition to the TPP.
Our Prime Minister may have mentioned, somewhat ruefully, our own experience with the island state of Fiji.  When that country went through its latest successive military coup, New Zealand foolishly cut off ties with Fiji to punish it.  So did heaps of other nations, including those in the EU.  But into this vacuum came the Chinese who are now best friends with Fiji.
Which is why Key's message to the US was an unusually blunt one -  sign the TPP now, or watch America slowly slide from "great", to waning super power.
Quite.

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