An Iowa Caucus Nano-Margin
Culture and Politics - Politics
Written by Douglas Wilson
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Here are a few observations that conservatives can pack into their suitcases as they leave Iowa. Romney edged out Santorum by eight votes -- a victory so razor-thin close as to make no difference. Eight votes! And the way the expectations world is structured, Romney cannot really claim a triumph here and Santorum can.
In the meantime, Ron Paul came in a strong third -- not as well as I thought he was going to do, but still doing very well. After those "three tickets out," Iowa did what Iowa does well, which was to winnow the field.
Here are some thoughts:
1. As the campaign between Romney and Santorum develops, all historic "no child left behind" Republicans -- among whom I would number both Romney and Santorum -- need to recognize that Obama drove through an opening created by big government conservatives. We are in a big mess and the Republicans have been big time complicit. But we are in a different place now, as in, the money all went poof. Some of those who see it now did help to get us here, and that should be acknowledged. I applaud Santorum's genuine defense of marriage and life and, listening to his tax cut proposals, am moderately hopeful he is on the side of the fiscally sane. But given Romney's continued stout defense of his Romneycare, I don't think Romney is going in the right economic direction at all. There are reasons why the establishment still wants to consider him as the heir apparent.
America under Obama dreaming of America under Romney is a drunk in the gutter dreaming of the days when he could still handle a two-martini business lunch. But what we need to dream of is a detox center.
2. On a related note, last night I saw Sarah Palin give the mainstreamers some really sound advice, which was to start treating the Ron Paul movement with some respect. Some of the furious scolding I have seen directed at them has really been unbelievable -- the kind of snark that only dogs can hear.
Politics is a contact sport, and you expect a few elbows to be thrown. But dirty ball is still dirty ball. I am convinced that all of the Republicans running need to honor Ron Paul where he is right, and differ respectfully where they believe he is wrong. This is another way of saying that all the Republicans need to be affected by him. But if they regard Paul's eventual defeat in the primaries as a "total repudiation" of his message, and do a little victory dance on the supposition that these libertarian thought crimes will now go away, they are making a drastic mistake. As Paul said last night, "freedom is popular."
3. Speaking of drastic mistakes, I believe that Ron Paul should squelch any possible talk of a third party run. Doing what he is doing now really is moving the Republican Party to the right. A third party run would only move the entire country left. I actually believe that Paul will not in fact run as a third party candidate, and the main reason is the untenable position this would put his son Rand Paul in. I am more comfortable with Rand than with Ron, and want to see his tea party influence grow within the Republican Party, which I trust Ron Paul wants also.
All in all, it was a pretty good night.
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