NIWA Scientists Dancing Like a Butterfly . . .

About to Get Stung by a Bee

A bunch of ignorant denialist zealots have had the temerity to take our National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research ("NIWA") to court over its fabrication of New Zealand's "official" temperature record. The problem has arisen because the raw, unadjusted temperature data for New Zealand for the past century shows no warming whatsoever. But the fiddled data "shows" strong warming--surprise, surprise.

The background of the case is summarised by Jo Nova:

There’s a litany of excuses. The National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) claims NZ has been warming at 0.92°C per 100 years. But when some independent minded chaps in New Zealand graphed the raw NZ data they found the thermometers show NZ has only warmed by a statistically non-significant 0.06°C. They asked for answer and got nowhere until they managed to get the light of legal pressure onto NIWA to force it to reply honestly. Reading between the lines, it’s obvious NIWA can’t explain nor defend the adjustments. (Cited in Watts Up With That)

Under the looming judicial scrutiny, NIWA has backed off the "official" temperature record, crying "mea non culpa". Apparently the adjusted temperature record was the product of one Jim Salinger, who trained incidentally at the Climatic Research Institute in the UK and has been part of the small global clique of scientists engaged in all sorts of dubious practices in an attempt to gild the global warming lily. Salinger made the adjustments upon which to this point NIWA has not only relied, but trumpeted. Now, it disowns Salinger's fabricated temperature series (called the New Zealand Temperature Record).

Richard Treadgold, one of the plaintiffs, describes the case.

For the last ten years, visitors to NIWA’s official website have been greeted by a graph of the “seven-station series” (7SS), under the bold heading “New Zealand Temperature Record”. The graph covers the period from 1853 to the present, and is adorned by a prominent trend-line sloping sharply upwards. Accompanying text informs the world that “New Zealand has experienced a warming trend of approximately 0.9°C over the past 100 years.”

The 7SS has been updated and used in every monthly issue of NIWA’s “Climate Digest” since January 1993. Its 0.9°C (sometimes 1.0°C) of warming has appeared in the Australia/NZ Chapter of the IPCC’s 2001 and 2007 Assessment Reports. It has been offered as sworn evidence in countless tribunals and judicial enquiries, and provides the historical base for all of NIWA’s reports to both Central and Local Governments on climate science issues and future projections.

NIWA has a printed promotional brochure describing its climate activities, which commences with the iconic 7SS graph. No piece of climate lore is more familiar to the public, and it is better known than NIWA’s logo.

But NIWA is now engaged in foot shuffling. It has been dancing like a butterfly.  It has come out to say that in fact there is no official temperature record for New Zealand.

In para 8(b) (of its Statement of Defence to the court) it says the NZ Temperature Record is not a public record for the purposes of the Public Records Act, using the exemption of “special collections” defined (in para 4(b)) as non-public records used for “research purposes”.

Oh, the embarrassment. Once they fired out the NZ Temperature Record like a machine gun mowing down anything that moved. Now, it has magically become a non-public record used only for arcane research purposes. Clearly, NIWA now wants to bury this Salinger fabrication in a deep dark hole. Why?

NIWA had adopted some 34 non-replicable adjustments proposed in 1980 by Salinger, whose calculations had been lost.

Thirty-four non-replicable adjustments! Salinger's calculation are now missing! So much for peer review and quality control.  Red faces and embarrassment all around.

Fortunately, because of the zealots, this has now gone way beyond the bluster and huffing and puffing employed a year ago. The "trust us; we're scientists; we know what we're doing; we're operating under best international peer reviewed best practice . . ." litany has disappeared in a puff of smoke.

Now, with the buzzing bee of the court case drawing near, NIWA is endeavouring to produce a new temperature record. Like the Salinger fiddle, it will contain adjustments. These adjustments will be "peer reviewed".

In its Statement of Defence, NIWA announces that it has now completed a full internal examination of the Salinger adjustments in the 7SS, and has forwarded its “review papers” to its Australian counterpart, the Bureaux of Meteorologists (BOM) for peer review.

From ministerial answers to Parliamentary Questions, we know that this “review” has involved five or six scientists working for about six months, and has received a special grant of about $70,000. It comprises a replacement Schedule of Adjustments for the 7SS with de novo documentation and detailed justification for each adjustment.

We wonder how much warming they will be able to conjure up this time. But one thing is sure. This time there will be serious scrutiny of everything. Genuine peer review will eventuate. And that will be all to the good. Sunlight is the best disinfectant--as always.