Friday, 21 June 2019

Real Politick Outside of London

Interesting Days

OK.  So it seems to be shaping up that Boris Johnson will become the leader of the Conservative Party in the UK.  Love him or loathe him, thems will be the apples and the pears.  So, then, Brexit awaits.  Or it should, unless Johnson is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

But what is not clear (yet) is where the UK Labour Party will stand on the issue.  After all, the majority in the Commons will struggle to be held together by a Boris Johnson led Conservative Party.  Where will Johnson's allies come from?  How will the Labour Party vote? 

Here is an interesting indicator: 

’We Must Leave’: Pro-Brexit Labour Warns Corbyn 2nd Referendum Would Be ‘Toxic’

Twenty-six Labour MPs in marginal and Brexit-supporting constituencies have written to party leader Jeremy Corbyn urging him to strike a deal with the next prime minister to secure Brexit by October 31st, warning that pushing for a second referendum would be “toxic to our bedrock” of supporters.
The letter was sent on Wednesday, reported by Guido Fawkes, as a meeting of the Shadow Cabinet failed to agree on explicitly backing Remain as official Labour Party position, with Mr Corbyn saying however that it is “now right to demand that any deal is put to a public vote”, or second referendum. Other colleagues urged the leftist to support a second referendum now, with the party campaigning on a platform for Remain.

The signatories of the letter urged the Labour Party to stand by its pledge to honour the 2016 referendum and warned that “a commitment to a second referendum would be toxic to our bedrock Labour voters, driving a wedge between them and our Party, jeopardising our role as a party of the whole nation.” The MPs added that the “populist right” and Brexit Party in particular represent a “potent threat” to Corbyn’s party in the traditionally working-class, pro-Brexit, but Labour-supporting heartlands. [Emphasis, ours]
“The Peterborough by-election result, with Labour’s vote share down 17%, and the Brexit Party coming so close, gives a stark warning of what could happen in Tory-Labour marginals, the majority of which are Leave seats,” the letter continued, adding that Peterborough canvassers were briefed “to assure voters that Brexit will not be stopped”.  [Breitbart News]

So, when all is said and done, it appears as though the "people" in electorates outside of London want Brexit--so much so, that the Labour Party fears electoral oblivion if it is seen to be supporting yet another referendum on the issue.  The electorate has "been there, and done that".  Any fiddling around with second referendums risks Labour entering the electoral void, with its supporters turning instead to the Brexit Party at the next general election. 

Johnson, if he were smart, could achieve a Grand Coalition:  Conservative rump, plus Labour rump, together with the Brexit Party. 

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