Unlocking The Potential in the Creation

Change We Can Believe In

Sheik Yamani once cryptically said, "The age of oil will inevitably come to an end but not for lack of oil."  The Sheik was a smart man who had more than a basic understanding of economics and history.  On this point he was much wiser than most modern politicians, bureaucrats, and academics who show repeatedly that they have very little understanding of markets, economics, and the history of technological development.  Malthusianism remains alive and well.

The Sheik knew what should have been obvious to all adults.  The age of the horse came to an inglorious end, but not because of lack of fecundity in the species.  The age of sail ended, but not for lack of wind.  The age of steam came to an abrupt end, but not for lack of wood.  The age of coal began petering out decades ago, but not for lack of the hard black stuff.  Oil and gas took over.  But the age of both will come to an end as new, cheaper technologies emerge.

One apparently significant (and recent) technological development gives a clue to at least one technological advance that will help make oil redundant: batteries are changing.  Consider the following:

Wellington's trolley buses are set to jump their wires and could soon head anywhere in the country.  The iconic buses have been thrown a lifeline with their owner, NZ Bus, signing a $43 million deal that will see "a significant number" of its 1100 buses in Auckland and Wellington converted to electric.

The capital's 60 trolley buses were set to be removed from service in mid-2017 when NZ Bus' current contract with Greater Wellington Regional Council expires, but this deal means they will live on.   NZ Bus chief executive Zane Fulljames refused to say exactly how many buses would be refitted with electric drivetrains in the deal with American firm Wrightspeed, but said it would be significant number.  The company would start with its trolley buses.  The Wrightspeed motors will be fitted into existing buses and will operate mostly on rechargeable electric batteries, topped up by a small conventionally-powered motor if needed on the road.  [Stuff]

Then comes the clue:

 As battery technology improves, the top ups will no longer be needed and the buses will travel entirely on electric power, Fulljames said.

These kind of improvements and advances happen all the time.  Along the way, fortunes are made and lost.  Standards of living rise.  The whole economic pie becomes much, much bigger.  But some things never change: politicians and Chatterers continue to wail about the end of the world as we know it.  Living in Chicken Little's world they attempt to avoid Armageddon by market manipulation and controls to make us all move in a Higher Way.  They are as irrelevant as the do-gooders back in the day who warned that within a generation there would be no forests left in Europe, such was the demand for wood to fuel trains, steamers, and machines.

As one sage put it, the more things change, the more they stay the same.