Hoping the Best, Fearing the Worst

Let's Hope We are Proven Wrong

April 1st has come and gone.  And with it, a new government was sworn in Myanmar.  Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy ("NLD") and national heroine, saw an old friend and confidante become President of Myanmar.  Of course Suu Kyi could not, herself, become president because of a characteristic manipulation by the military masters who made a rule (deliberately to block Suu Kyi from becoming President).

Suu Kyi endured decades of house arrest and harassment by military rulers without ever giving up on her nonviolent campaign to unseat them. The constitutional clause that denied her the presidency excludes anyone from the position who has a foreign spouse or child. Suu Kyi's two sons are British, as was her late husband. The clause is widely seen as having been written by the military with Suu Kyi in mind. [NZ Herald]

Despite these, and other tricks, the NLD won 95% support in recent elections.  The challenges facing the new government are prodigious.  Moreover, the military dictatorship has reserved much control for itself.

The constitution, drafted by the former junta, reserves 25 percent of the seats in parliament for military officers, guaranteeing that no government can amend the constitution without its approval. The military also heads the Home Ministry, the Border Affairs Ministry and the Defense Ministry, which gives it control over the corrections department, ensuring that the release of political prisoners is its decision to make. 

 In order to understand Myanmar, one has to grasp what the military dictatorship has been, and in significant measure continues to be.  Emma Larkin, in her haunting book, No Bad News For the King, writes:

. . . I met a Burmese man whose family was closely connected with the military and asked him how best to learn more about the country's ruling generals.  He quickly corrected me.  "First of all, it's not generals," he said, turning the final S into a remonstrative hiss.  "It's just one general.  To understand the regime, you need only to understand one man--Senior General Than Shwe.  What we have here in Burma is a classic textbook case of totalitarian dictatorship."  . . .  Unlike dictators such as Mao, Stalin, or Kim Il Sung . . . Than Shwe has stayed mostly behind the scenes and prefers to manipulate events in the style of a Machiavellian puppet master who remains--for the duration of the show--hidden from view. [Emma Larkin, No Bad News for the King, (New York: Penguin Books, 2010), p.91f.]

Than Shwe is now old, reclusive and yet still in control of Myanmar.   In the days of the kings of old, when a king died it was not uncommon for all closely associated with him to be executed or purged.  Around Than Shwe, who views himself as a re-incarnation of an ancient king, swirl the palace intrigues and the internecine struggle of factions.  Purges are not uncommon as advisers and their respective allies fall out of favour.  This places the democratic reforms currently underway upon the keenest of knife edges.  Than Shwe is reported to detest Aung San Suu Kyi.

As is so often the case, we hope for the best in Myanmar, but fear the worst.  Let's hope our fears prove to be thoroughly wrong.