Global Warming in Antarctica

Everything Fits

Ever since the publication of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, philosophers of science have been aware of the influence of theoretical mental paradigms which guide and control scientific research.  Establishment paradigms probably have more dominance now than they ever did in earlier times because of the gatekeeping role of universities, the government funding of research, and the dominant role of science publishing houses.  Nonconformists tend to have a hard time of it, readily slandered as crackpots, ignoramuses, ante-diluvians etc. Science today has become very politicised, far more so than in Galileo's day. 

The vast majority of scientists remain ignorant of the role of theoretical and conceptual paradigms in restricting pure research, constraining funding, directing careers, and governing the interpretation of research data.  They naively think they are just dealing with the facts.  Below is a laughable illustration: the dominant official paradigm of anthropogenic global warming has produced an orthodoxy which requires all data to be re-interpreted in its image.  Take the inconvenient fact that Antarctic sea ice is growing.  Watch the contortions begin.

And while the ice loss has been fairly well documented in the west and the peninsula, data on the East Antarctic ice sheet paints a murkier picture. The most recent estimate published in the journal Science in 2012 states that the East Antarctic ice sheet is gaining mass by 14 gigatonnes per year. However, that data, as the study points out, has a 43 gigaton margin of error, Abdalati says, making it difficult to confirm the gain with any certainty.

Now, introducing margins of error is just fine.  After all, we are always interested in accuracy and context when confronting data.  But the only time global warming advocates mention them is when the data is against them.   But you don't require such care and qualifications if you happen to be speaking affirmatively of the dominant paradigm.

Now comes the argument that, actually, the growth of sea ice in the southern regions might be caused by anthropogenic global warming. 

Perhaps the most confusing detail - the growth of sea ice around Antarctica - is also a direct response to climate change, said Andrew Carleton, professor of physical geography at Penn State University. Despite the warming climate, sea ice surrounding the continent has increased about one percent every decade between 1979 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

It seems counter intuitive, but that growth is a result of the glacial melt happening on the rest of the continent, Carleton said. As fresh water melts into the ocean it decreases the salinity of the seawater, he explained. Water with less salt content freezes at a higher temperature, so even with warming air temperatures melting the glaciers, the Antarctic Ocean continues to gain sea ice.  "It seems paradoxical, but it makes sense," Carleton said.

Let's get this straight.  As a result of global warming, things are getting colder.  Maybe we will even have another ice age--but (and you read it here first) this too will be explained  by anthropogenic global warming  (albeit with a passing acknowledgement to counter-inuitivity).

The story of Antarctica is not a simple one, Abdalati says, and scientists are still working to make sense of how it fits in the bigger picture of climate change.  "It's not that it doesn't fit. It all fits," he said. "We have to ask 'what is the story telling us?'"

Everything fits with the theory of anthropogenic global warming--once the contortionists have had their say.  In the end, however, as the man says, it's only a "just so" story.

In the meantime, spare a thought for the science-tourists who will doubtless come away from their trip to Antarctic more convinced than ever that everything does indeed fit, in a counter-intuitive kind of way.

An Antarctic-bound ship spent Christmas awaiting rescue after the ship became wedged in thick sheets of sea ice.  The ice-breaker Akademik Shokalski set sail for the sub- Antarctic and Antarctica from Bluff on a mission of science and discovery, which sailed on November 28. . . .

The ship had been on a multi-day tour from New Zealand to visit several sites along the edge of Antarctica.The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) received a distress call on this morning, notifying the rescue co-ordination centre that the ship was trapped in ice and would need help.  It is not known how long the ship has been unable to break free from the ice floes.  An AMSA spokeswoman said three ships had been sent to assist but it would take at least two days for the nearest vessel to reach the remote location - about 1500 nautical miles south of Hobart.

And, then, three days later in the NZ Herald:

A Chinese icebreaker responding to a stranded research ship with six Kiwis on board has been blocked by heavy Antarctic sea ice.  The Xue Long was expected to reach the MV Akademik Shokalskiy, which is trapped in heavy ice about 3000km southwest of New Zealand, late last night.  But the Australian Maritime Safety Authority's rescue co-ordination centre (RCC), which is overseeing the rescue, said on Twitter this morning that the Chinese icebreaker had also encountered heavy ice.