We don't put much stock in predictions. But sometimes tea leaves are easier to read than at others. It is our expectation that President Obama will have his "military action" in Syria. He will have failed to get UN endorsement of his recklessness. He will go to war against one side in a civil war without any formal declaration of war. He will act imperially, without Congressional approval, making the action unconstitutional. But Obama has never been one to hold much respect for the Constitution of the United States.
He will order missile strikes on Syrian government targets. A few aircraft will do bombing runs. A few civilian (collateral damage) casualties will be pronounced.
There will be lots of smoke, noise, and a bit of "shock and awe". It will do nothing to stop the Syrian government using more chemical weapons. In fact, it will probably make them a bit more reckless. The Muslim world will strengthen its hatred of the United States. The Great Satan will grow bigger horns in their eyes.
We predict there will be no gains, and no resolution of the conflict--which, we repeat, is a civil war. It is unlikely that Iran will open a second front up against Israel. The American action will be seen for what it is: temporary, grandstanding, a bit of failed gun-boat diplomacy. It will be waited out. Obama will be playing to his own galleries, trying to score a few domestic political points.
According to the LA Times,
One U.S. official who has been briefed on the options on Syria said he believed the White House would seek a level of intensity "just muscular enough not to get mocked" but not so devastating that it would prompt a response from Syrian allies Iran and Russia. "They are looking at what is just enough to mean something, just enough to be more than symbolic," he said.In other words--it's all a propaganda stunt.
Where next? Well, there is a bit of unrest beginning to bubble up in Nigeria. How about rattling a few sabres down there?
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