An Outsider's Chance

The Curious Case of Herman Cain

The process of choosing the Republican candidate to stand against Obama is still in its early stages.  But from down here in the South Pacific it seems that there are a few curve balls being thrown.  One is Herman Cain.  He has vaulted out of threatening extinction to become the leading Republican in recent days.  He is the ultimate Republican outsider. 

This is his greatest strength and also his Achilles heel.


It tells you something when the current leading Republican candidate has had very little to do with politics and is definitely not a politician by calling or career.  He has been a career businessman; he previously has entered one political race that we are aware of to date, in his semi-retirement, and lost.  This non-politician status is working powerfully in his favour amongst independent voters and conservative Republicans.  Why?  Because they are antipathetic to "politics as usual", especially as that dark art is practised in Washington. 

Secondly, Cain has ideas, proposals that are fresh.  We do not mean by this that his ideas lack substance.  But they are too outside-the-box, too radical for the Republican establishment to contemplate.  His 9-9-9 tax plan is one of those.  Unfortunately for the establishment, it is being animatedly discussed all over the country--and endorsed by knowledgeable and effective politicians, such as Paul Ryan--the leading Republican Congressman standing up for balanced budgets and fiscal rectitude. 

Thirdly, Cain is a small-government conservative, which immediately gains support amongst the anti-Washington crowd.  Moreover, he does not schmooze or grease or mince words.  He is plain speaking, focused upon ideas and principles.  He answers questions without much fear of what people will think of him or how many votes he will garner by his response.  Cain in not being "politically managed".  All this makes him attractive to the grass roots.  They recognize a kindred spirit. 

But Cain has no establishment Republican backing.  He is not one of them.  He has not done his time.  He is a Palinesque outsider.  He has little or no money. 

This raises an interesting question: can a Republican candidate win the party's nomination just by weight of votes, rather than dollars?  We believe that if ever there was a time when having lots of money would actually be distasteful to an electorate it may be now.  So, ironically, not having money may stand Cain in good stead.  Romney and Perry are raising millions of dollars in support; Cain is not raising hardly any money at all. He has few staff working for him. Yet, he leads them in the polls.  Something is at work here.  We don't know whether it will continue.  The actual primaries, when they commence, will be an acid test. 

Apart from his lack of political experience, Cain has some other liabilities.  Chief amongst these is his ignorance of the world outside the borders of the US.  He appears to know even less about the world than candidate Obama did--which is saying something.  If he were to get the nomination and run he would have to surround himself with suitable, experienced foreign policy advice. 

Imagine this: Cain gets the nomination and chooses Condoleeza Rice as his adviser/mentor on US foreign policy--maybe even as his running mate.  A black ticket.  Ah, the pure poetry and style that would represent.  The conniptions of the chattering classes and the Commentariat would be delightful to behold.  Already, some have suggested that Cain is not a genuine black man because he does not espouse left-wing socialism.  He is a quasi-Uncle Tom sold out to his masters.  (Cain's response line has been masterful: blacks, he alleges, have been enslaved on the Democratic plantation for far too long)!

But Rice!  Not only black, but female.  Long ago the chattering classes dismissed Rice (as they have done Sarah Palin) as being not a genuine woman because she did not espouse the feminist liberal claptrap of the left wing.  So, a ticket of two black Americans, neither of them politicians, one of them a female would be priceless for the entertainment value alone.  But Rice is formidable and no light weight.  Cain is fundamentally commonsensical, a proven leader, commercially experienced. 

Maybe, just maybe, there will be a chance for a genuinely conservative, unmonied outsider this election.  Maybe this is the election when the grass roots, small-government Republican conservatives link arms with conservative independents to defeat the "me-too" Republican establishment.  It is a long shot to be sure.  But deliciously diverting nonetheless.