French Mobilisation: Theatrics Or Resolute Policy?

Early Signs of Waging War

Following the recent Paris attacks and President Hollande's immediate declaration of war we wrote expressing scepticism about the will of France to conduct war against Islamic guerilla fighters or what used to be called irregulars, or commandos.  We pointed out that the "fronts" of that war are actually found in Europe, not in the Middle East.  Military strikes on ISIS--which constituted the initial French response--are largely irrelevant at this stage.   

To go to war against the guerillas operating in Europe would require a resolve and discipline of France and its people actually to wage war on home soil.  We were, and remain, sceptical of the resolve of Europe, in general, and France in particular to undergo the privations and difficulties of fighting on the domestic front.   France, we suggested, was far too wedded to the comforts of chardonnay and the cafes to proceed with any kind of militancy requiring mobilisation for the armed forces for war in France.  Therefore, we reasoned, Hollande's "declaration of war" was likely little more than a theatrical, rhetorical flourish.

Over the past week, however, the French authorities have been very active in tracking down and killing those involved in the military strikes against French citizens in Paris.
  This, from the Washington Post:

PARIS — French police commandos killed the suspected ringleader of the Paris attacks in a massive predawn raid Wednesday, two senior European intelligence officials said, after investigators followed leads that the fugitive militant was holed up north of the French capital and could be plotting another wave of violence.

More than 100 police and soldiers stormed an apartment building in the suburb of Saint-Denis during a seven-hour siege that left two dead, including the suspected overseer of the Paris bloodshed, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, a Belgian extremist who had once boasted he could slip easily between Europe and the Islamic State strongholds in Syria.

After the raid, forsenics experts combed through the aftermath — blown-out windows, floors collapsed by explosions — presumably seeking DNA and other evidence. The intelligence officials spoke on condition of anonymity before announcements from authorities.  Paris prosecutor François Molins, speaking to reporters hours after the siege, said a discarded cellphone helped identify a series of safe houses used by attackers to plan Friday’s coordinated assaults, which killed 129 people and wounded more than 350 across Paris.

Molins said police launched the raid because they believed that Abaaoud may have been “entrenched” on the third floor of the apartment building. He said he could not yet provide the identities of the two people who died at the scene, but he added that neither Abaaoud nor another wanted suspect, Salah Abdeslam, was among a total of eight people who were arrested at the apartment and other locations Wednesday.

Three people were arrested in the raid on the apartment, he said, one of whom had a gunshot wound in the arm.  Two senior European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, confirmed that Abaaoud was killed in the raid. Molins said the safe houses indicated “a huge logistics plan, meticulously carried out.” The death of Abaaoud closes one major dragnet in the international search for suspects from Friday’s carnage.

We expect that there are dozens, if not hundreds more commando cells throughout France and Europe planning to execute attacks in the next months and years.  The war--on European soil--may take years to win.  Is France up for the appropriate and necessary mobilisation and deployment and fighting?  We shall see.

A significant indicator would be whether France shuts its borders to all but fully authenticated refugees, which would require detention centres whilst bona fides are established.  It would also require a rejection of the Open Borders policy with respect to the rest of Europe, and the forced deportation of all who fail to authentication as genuine refugees or economic migrants.  Finally, it would likely require military occupation of the ghettos in which the guerillas find cover and support.

We will see.  But a good beginning, at least.