Cold Enough For You?

Shivering Up a Storm

About three months ago, NIWA, the official (government) national weather and climate "service" made its predictions for May, June and July. Now, NIWA--like most government organs--has been a cheer leader for the cause of global warming. Long ago it passed over from science to advocacy. It was having a "field day" in the late nineties, being a harbinger of doom for our glaciers, farming, beer brewing--anything, and everything was going to be blasted by global warming.

In the noughties its predictions of climate have continued a warming bias. Its most recent three month prediction (April to July, 2009) had this to say:

The latest outlook covers the three months April, May and June 2009, and indicates average or above average temperatures in all regions. While most regions are expected to experience near normal rainfalls for the three months as a whole, below normal rainfall is likely for the eastern South Island, and normal or above normal rainfall is likely over the north of the North Island.

So, normal (average) conditions were expected to eventuate. But, if not average and normal, then the likelihood was for higher than normal temperatures. (See the bias here. It its not normal, its likely to be warmer than normal.

Temperature: Temperatures are expected to be average or above average in all regions. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are expected to be average or above average through May-July. Outlooks are assigned probabilities: above average, average, and below average. So the expectation for temperature over the three months was as follows:

Probability of above normal average temperatures: 40%
Probability of average temperatures: 40%
Probability of below average temperatures: 20%

According to NIWA there was a one in five chance that the national average temperature over these months would be below average.

How have we done so far? Well, NIWA is now starting to report on the three months. May's actual data was--well--cold. Actually, extremely cold--according to our false prognosticators!

Extremely low temperatures (between 2.0 and 2.5 °C lower than normal) were recorded over most of the South Island, lower parts of the North Island, King Country, Waikato, Auckland and parts of Northland. Most other locations experienced well below average temperatures (between 1.2 and 2.0 °C lower than normal). The national average temperature of 9.0°C was 1.6°C below the long-term average for May.

So, May delivered "extremely low temperatures" in the South Island and most of the North Island; the national average for May at 1.6 degrees below the long term average is startling in the light of NIWA's expectations. Not only has it been colder than average, but much colder. How is it you did not see this coming, guys?

Not only were they wrong--but they have been forced to record that many of the temperatures recorded in May were the lowest on record.

TEMPERATURE: LOWEST EVER FOR MAY FOR MANY AREAS, COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR ALL

The national average temperature of 9.0 °C for May 2009 was 1.6 °C below average for this time of the year. Temperatures were below average (by between 2.0 and 2.5 °C) over most of the South Island, lower parts of the North Island, King Country, Waikato, Auckland and parts of Northland. Most other locations experienced well below average temperatures (between 1.2 and 2.0 °C lower than normal). Record low May maximum or minimum temperatures were recorded in multiple locations throughout the country.

Thirteen cities/regions recorded the lowest May average temperatures ever. Twenty-five cities/regions had the second coldest May average temperatures ever recorded. Yup, NIWA are on to something here.

Then comes the data for June. (See how your place of abode fared in in the table below.) NIWA reports:

TEMPERATURES: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE BREADTH AND LENGTH OF THE COUNTRY

The national average temperature of 7.5°C was 0.7°C below the long-term average for June. Monthly maximum temperatures were below average in many locations of New Zealand, and well below average (more than2 degrees below normal) in Northland, the Tararua District, and central Otago. Record low June maximum temperatures were observed at Kaitaia, Whakatane, coastal Waikato, Dannevirke (with a June mean maximum temperature 3.0 °C below normal), Wanganui, Greymouth, and Banks Peninsula.

Extreme low June mean maximum daily air temperatures were recorded at:

Location, ( °C), Dviatn, Year records began, Comments

Kaitaia 14.6 -1.6 1967 Lowest
Dargaville 14.1 -2.1 1943 2nd-lowest
Whangaparaoa 14.0 -0.7 1982 4th-lowest
Waitakere 14.5 -0.9 1978 2nd-lowest
Whitianga 14.3 -1.1 1962 2nd-lowest
Whakatane 13.5 -1.2 1974 Lowest
Rotorua Aero 11.3 -1.3 1964 2nd-lowest
Taupo 10.4 -1.4 1949 4th-lowest
Auckland 13.6 -1.4 1959 2nd-lowest
Ruakura 12.8 -1.4 1906 3rd-lowest
Hamilton 12.9 -1.3 1946 4th-lowest
Port Taharoa 13.9 -1.0 1973 Lowest
Te Kuiti 12.5 -1.3 1959 3rd-lowest
Takapau Plains 9.6 -1.9 1962 2nd-lowest
Dannevirke 9.1 -3.0 1951 Lowest
Martinborough 11.9 -1.3 1986 2nd-lowest
Ngawi 11.6 -1.6 1972 2nd-lowest
Hicks Bay 13.9 -1.0 1969 2nd-lowest
Gisborne 13.2 -1.7 1905 4th-lowest
Napier 12.5 -1.8 1870 4th-lowest
Hastings 12.7 -1.5 1965 2nd-lowest
Waipawa 11.0 -1.7 1945 2nd-lowest
Paraparaumu 11.8 -1.2 1953 2nd-lowest
Wellington 11.4 -1.5 1962 3rd-lowest
Stratford 10.5 -1.5 1960 4th-lowest
Hawera 11.7 -1.0 1977 4th-lowest
Waiouru 6.8 -1.9 1962 3rd-lowest
Wanganui 12.4 -1.3 1987 Lowest
Takaka 12.7 -0.9 1978 2nd-lowest
Farewell Spit 12.6 -1.2 1971 2nd-lowest
Reefton 8.2 -1.7 1960 4th-lowest
Greymouth 10.9 -1.4 1947 Lowest
Milford Sound 7.7 -1.8 1934 3rd-lowest
Motueka, Riwaka 11.8 -1.4 1956 2nd-lowest
Blenheim 11.8 -1.3 1932 3rd-lowest
Cape Campbell 10.7 -1.9 1953 2nd-lowest
Kaikoura 10.0 -1.7 1963 2nd-lowest
Banks Penin 9.1 -1.5 1984 Lowest
Wanaka 6.0 -2.2 1955 3rd-lowest
Manapouri 6.4 -2.2 1963 2nd-lowest
Balclutha 8.4 -1.2 1964 4th-lowest

There we have it. So much for normal or above average temperatures this winter. But don't worry--cap and trade will set us right. It is a terrible thing when politicians display invincible ignorance. Generations will look back and say, How could they have been so stupid? How, indeed?