Sticking The Neck Out
At least one pundit is predicting a Republican landslide next week. We shall see.
Opinion: Here comes the landslide
By Dick Morris - 10/30/12
Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no
agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the
past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people
that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich,
ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run
his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney
bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates,
we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama
depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.
As we stripped away Obama’s yearlong campaign of vilification, all the
president offered us was more servings of negative ads — ads we had
already dismissed as not credible. He kept doing the same thing even as
it stopped working.
The result was that the presidential race
reached a tipping point. Reasonable voters saw that the voice of hope
and optimism and positivism was Romney while the president was only a
nitpicking, quarrelsome, negative figure. The contrast does not work in
His erosion began shortly after the conventions
when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in
addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this
year). Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida
(29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total
to 255 votes.
And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing
states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the
union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead.
the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan
(15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in
Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new
swing states look to be the battleground. Or will the Romney momentum grow and wash into formerly safe Democratic territory in New Jersey and Oregon?
everyone discovers that the emperor has no clothes (or that Obama has
no argument after the negative ads stopped working), the vote shift
could be of historic proportions.
The impact on Senate races could
be profound. Give the GOP easy pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota.
Wisconsin has been a roller coaster. Once an easy win for Republican
Tommy Thompson, then a likely loss as Democrat Tammy Baldwin caught up,
and now Republican again, it will probably be a third pickup. Romney’s
surge in Virginia is propelling George Allen to a good lead for the
first time all campaign. In Montana, Republican Denny Rehberg holds and
has held for some time a small lead over Democrat incumbent Jon Tester.
And, in Pennsylvania, Smith has powered his campaign to a small lead
over Democrat Bob Casey Jr.
The GOP now leads in these six
takeaways. But it is also within easy striking distance in Ohio and
Florida, where incumbents are under 50 percent and Republican
challengers Connie Mack (Fla.) and Josh Mandel (Ohio) are only a few
points behind. It may even be possible to entertain daydreams of Rhode
Island (Barry Hinckley) and New Jersey (Joe Kyrillos) going Republican.
losses? Look for a giveback in Maine and possibly in Indiana and
Massachusetts. In Indiana, Republican Richard Mourdock had established a
5-point lead over Democrat Joe Donnelly. But his comments about rape
knocked him back to a tie. With Romney carrying the state by 15 points,
however, Mourdock could still make it. In Massachusetts, Brown has been
in hand-to-hand combat with Elizabeth Warren. Down by five a few days
ago, he’s now tied, but the undecided usually goes against the
The most likely outcome? Eight GOP takeaways and two
giveaways for a net gain of six. A 53-47 Senate, just like we have now,
Barack Obama’s parting gift to the Democratic Party.
a former adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Clinton, is
the author of Outrage, Fleeced, Catastrophe and 2010: Take Back America
— A Battle Plan. To get all of his and Eileen McGann’s columns for free
by e-mail or to order a signed copy of their latest book, Revolt!:
How To Defeat Obama and Repeal His Socialist Programs — A Patriot’s
Guide, go to dickmorris.com.